Extreme Dry and Wet Events in the Pacific Region of Colombia estimated in the 21st Century Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index and CORDEX Climate Projections

The Pacific region of Colombia is known to be one the most vulnerable changes in precipitation patterns. A study was conducted using standardized index (SPI) analyses understand potential this during 21st century. were historical data from 1950 2005 and projected 2022 2100 under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5). results showed that compared data, SPI3 predicted increase by 2040 both climatic scenarios. However, 2041–2070 period, expected wetter 8.5, although difference between two not statistically significant. Similarly, SPI 6 2022–2040 2071–2100 periods 12 also period 4.5. In dryness more frequent 4.5, wetness 8.5. findings can help determining pertinent reference computation time increments for evaluating effects future change on agricultural production food security Colombia. It suggests patterns are likely occur coming decades, which may significantly impact crop growth, water availability, other aspects production.